Thursday Night Football in Week 3 brings the Atlanta Falcons to Lambeau Field to face the Green Bay Packers. While Green Bay enters at 1-1 and Atlanta at 0-2, the advanced numbers reveal several important factors that could shape the matchup.
The game is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET, with Jordan Love, Michael Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson at the center of the statistical story.
1. EPA: Green Bay’s offense is still searching for consistency
Jordan Love enters the game with 532 passing yards, four touchdowns and one interception through two weeks. His advanced numbers, however, tell a less favorable story. Love is around -0.08 EPA per dropback and has a CPOE of -11.3% through the opening two games.
Atlanta’s defense has been considerably more efficient than its own offense. The Falcons have allowed roughly -0.11 EPA per play, putting the unit among the league’s more efficient defenses during the opening portion of the season.
That contrast matters because Atlanta’s offense has struggled badly to generate production, while its defense has done a better job limiting opponents. Green Bay will need to turn its passing production into sustained drives rather than relying exclusively on explosive plays.
2. CPOE: Jordan Love has struggled against expectation, while Michael Penix Jr. returns without 2026 data
Completion Percentage Over Expected, or CPOE, measures how often a quarterback completes passes relative to the expected completion rate based on the difficulty of his throws.
Love enters Thursday night with a CPOE of approximately -11.3% after two games. In practical terms, his completion percentage has been substantially below the model’s expectation based on the difficulty of his attempts.
Michael Penix Jr. presents a different situation. Atlanta’s quarterback has not attempted a pass during the 2026 regular season because he missed the first two games while recovering from his injury. There is therefore no current-season CPOE figure that can be directly compared with Love’s.
Penix’s most recent available season-level CPOE was -2.5% in 2025. Thursday night will provide the first meaningful 2026 sample for evaluating how he performs after his return.
That will be particularly important against a Green Bay defense capable of creating pressure. Atlanta needs Penix to change the rhythm of an offense that has produced very little through the first two weeks.
3. Bijan Robinson: workload remains Atlanta’s biggest offensive weapon
If there is one Atlanta player capable of changing the game with the ball in his hands, it is Bijan Robinson.
Through two games, Robinson has 37 rushing attempts for 155 yards and 11 receptions for 99 yards. That gives him 48 touches while making him a major part of both Atlanta’s running and passing games.
His workload is particularly important because Atlanta has struggled to create consistent production through the air. Robinson has become one of the team’s primary ways to move the football and can also serve as an extension of the passing game on shorter throws.
The matchup will not be easy. Green Bay has allowed only 2.85 yards per carry to opposing running backs through the first two weeks and has limited explosive runs from its first two opponents.
What do the numbers say before kickoff?
The advanced metrics point to a matchup built around contrasting strengths and weaknesses. Green Bay has produced far more passing yardage, but Jordan Love enters the game with negative EPA and CPOE figures. Atlanta, meanwhile, has one of the league’s least efficient offenses, while its defense has produced significantly better efficiency numbers and now gets its starting quarterback back.
Against the spread, both teams enter the game with 0-2 records, so their immediate ATS records do not establish a clear edge by themselves. The betting line has also moved during the week, with Green Bay listed as the home favorite at Lambeau Field.
For Fantasy, Bijan Robinson’s workload remains the most important element to monitor on the Atlanta side. For Green Bay, the focus will be on whether Jordan Love can turn his passing volume into a more efficient performance.
Thursday night’s matchup ultimately comes down to two major questions: can Green Bay convert its offensive production into greater efficiency, and can Michael Penix Jr.’s return change the direction of Atlanta’s offense?